The “tariff war” initiated by former U.S. President Donald Trump has been one of the most relevant economic and political episodes of the 21st century. His strategy sought a clear objective: to put the United States’ finances in order and improve the country’s trade balance. But, beyond its immediate effects, this policy could be laying the foundations for a new world order.

Trump’s strategy: protectionism as a banner

During his term in office, Donald Trump implemented a series of trade measures aimed at reducing the U.S. deficit with other nations, mainly China. Arguing that free trade had favored other countries to the detriment of the U.S. economy, the government-imposed tariffs on hundreds of imported goods.

One of the most tense focuses was the relationship with China. Starting in 2018, Washington imposed tariffs on more than $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, prompting a series of retaliations from Beijing. For Trump, it was a necessary strategy to reduce dependence on foreign products, protect domestic industry and balance the trade balance.

Economic results of the tariff war

Although the strategy had mixed effects in the short term, the message was clear: the United States was willing to redefine its role in the world economy. Some industries, such as steel and aluminum, temporarily benefited from tariff protection, but others, such as agriculture, suffered foreign retaliation.

However, the larger objective was strategic: to force a renegotiation of the rules of international trade and reposition the United States as a productive power.

This stance, which many have labeled “economic nationalism,” may be influencing a deeper shift: the creation of a new world order.

The Tariff War and the New World Order

Below, we analyze three hypotheses on how this tariff war could trigger a new global scenario.

Scenario 1: Fragmentation of global trade into regional blocs

One of the visible consequences of the tariff war was the weakening of the multilateral trading system. By withdrawing from international treaties and acting unilaterally, the U.S. motivated the creation of regional trading blocs.

For example, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Agreement (RCEP) were consolidated as alternative spaces for trade integration. In this logic, the world could be divided into zones of economic influence, where the great powers will establish their own trade rules.

This would mark the end of the global consensus around free trade, as promoted by organizations such as the WTO in recent decades. In its place, a fragmented scenario would emerge, with different rules depending on the region or the dominant power.

Scenario 2: Rise of China as a new hegemonic power

Paradoxically, the tariff war may have strengthened China’s global role. In the face of the restrictions imposed by the U.S., the Chinese government accelerated its market diversification strategy and consolidated initiatives such as the “Belt and Road,” an ambitious infrastructure plan to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa.

In addition, the Asian giant has led trade pacts, invested in technology and innovation and expanded its financial influence through organizations such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

In this context, many analysts believe that we are witnessing the birth of a new axis of global economic power centred on Asia, with China as the main player. If this trend continues, the tariff war could have accelerated the transition to a multipolar world, where the US no longer holds the unquestioned hegemony of the past.

Scenario 3: Return of economic nationalism at the global level

Trump’s strategy has also had a contagion effect. Other governments began to adopt protectionist stances, justified by the need to protect local jobs and reduce external dependence.

Countries such as India, Brazil or even some European nations have reconsidered their position on imports and have sought to strengthen their domestic production. This trend could mean a global return to economic nationalism, moving away from classical globalization.

If this hypothesis materializes, international trade would lose dynamism, and countries would begin to prioritize bilateral or regional relations. It could also mean a resurgence of geopolitical tensions, as they compete directly for key resources, markets and technologies.

Consequences for the common citizen of the tariff war

Although these hypotheses are developed at the macroeconomic and geopolitical level, their effects also impact daily life. A tariff war implies higher prices for imported products, shortages of certain goods, and changes in local employment.

For example, if imports of electronic components from Asia are reduced, many technology companies could be forced to move their production chains or assume higher costs. This can be reflected in the final price paid by the consumer.

Likewise, sectors such as agriculture, automotive or energy may experience ups and downs if commercial relations with their main buyers or suppliers are affected.

Unpredictable results or a well-implemented strategy?

Donald Trump’s tariff war was not a mere political whim, but a strategy to reframe America’s role in the global economy. Although its short-term results were debated, its long-term impact could be much greater.

The three hypotheses put forward – the fragmentation of global trade, the rise of China and the return of economic nationalism – offer possible scenarios of a new world order under construction. In all cases, international trade will cease to be the same.

In this changing context, governments and citizens alike must prepare for a more complex, competitive and less predictable world, where the tariff war could be just the beginning of an unprecedented global transformation.